Source Details

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                "text": "Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.",
                "simplified_text": "Democrats probably need two or three point popular vote win to retake House next year",
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                "text": "Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and perhaps Florida \u2014 all Republican-controlled states \u2014 seem likely to join Texas and California in attempting to redraw their congressional maps, according to my New York Times colleagues.",
                "simplified_text": "Indiana Missouri Ohio Florida likely join Texas California in redrawing congressional maps",
                "claim_maker": "Nate Cohn",
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                "text": "By their tally, Republicans could carve out up to seven more House seats where they would be favored to win.",
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                "text": "Despite plenty of gerrymandering, the winner of the popular vote was reasonably likely to win the most seats.",
                "simplified_text": "2024 House map winner of popular vote likely to win most seats",
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                "text": "But if the new maps are enacted in all of these states, Democrats will need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to be favored to retake the House, according to projections based on recent congressional and presidential election results.",
                "simplified_text": "New maps require Democrats to win popular vote by two or three points to retake House",
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                "text": "With Democrats leading by four points in the national generic ballot polls today, the party would still be favored to win next year\u2019s midterm election.",
                "simplified_text": "Democrats leading by four points favored to win next year's midterm election",
                "claim_maker": "Nate Cohn",
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                "text": "On average, our analysis shows Republicans would gain about 5.2 seats, not seven, as several would remain competitive.",
                "simplified_text": "Analysis shows Republicans would gain about 5.2 seats",
                "claim_maker": "Nate Cohn",
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        "suggested_reeval_at": "2026-11-03 00:00:00"
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