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Claim Text
On average, our analysis shows Republicans would gain about 5.2 seats, not seven, as several would remain competitive.
Simplified Text
Analysis shows Republicans would gain about 5.2 seats
Confidence Score
0.900
Claim Maker
Nate Cohn
Context Type
News Article
Context Details
{
    "date": "2025-08-31",
    "party": "Republican",
    "topic": "Redistricting",
    "author": "Nate Cohn",
    "newsletter": "The Tilt"
}
Subject Tags
Politics Elections
UUID
9fc890fb-b3cc-4342-bd79-5bc1f22a8374
Vector Index
✗ No vector
Created
September 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM (1 week ago)
Last Updated
September 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM (1 week ago)

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Screenshot of https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20250831&instance_id=161613&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122976029&segment_id=204973&user_id=b25c5730c89e0c73f75709d8f1254337
If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?
Pending
Analysis
7 claims
1 week ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20250831&instance_id=161613&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122976029&segment_id=204973&user_id=b25c5730c89e0c73f75709d8f1254337

Analysis of potential redistricting effects on the 2026 House elections. Republicans could gain up to seven seats, potentially requiring Democrats to win the popular vote by 2-3 points to win the House.

US Politics
2026 Midterm Elections
Redistricting
Gerrymandering
House of Representatives
Election Analysis

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