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Claim Text
Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.
Simplified Text
Democrats probably need two or three point popular vote win to retake House next year
Confidence Score
0.800
Claim Maker
Nate Cohn
Context Type
News Article
Context Details
{
    "date": "2025-08-31",
    "event": "2026 Midterm Elections",
    "topic": "Redistricting",
    "author": "Nate Cohn",
    "newsletter": "The Tilt"
}
Subject Tags
Politics Elections
UUID
9fc890f5-c7a9-4a9b-a509-8140b2283372
Vector Index
✗ No vector
Created
September 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM (1 week ago)
Last Updated
September 2, 2025 at 6:29 PM (1 week ago)

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Screenshot of https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20250831&instance_id=161613&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122976029&segment_id=204973&user_id=b25c5730c89e0c73f75709d8f1254337
If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?
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Analysis
7 claims
1 week ago
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/upshot/redistricting-analysis-2026-midterms.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20250831&instance_id=161613&nl=the-morning&regi_id=122976029&segment_id=204973&user_id=b25c5730c89e0c73f75709d8f1254337

Analysis of potential redistricting effects on the 2026 House elections. Republicans could gain up to seven seats, potentially requiring Democrats to win the popular vote by 2-3 points to win the House.

US Politics
2026 Midterm Elections
Redistricting
Gerrymandering
House of Representatives
Election Analysis

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