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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/24\/us\/politics\/democrats-show-strength-in-michigan-senate-race-but-trail-in-maine-polls-find.html?emc=edit_nn_20260924&nl=the-morning&segment_id=226986",
    "parsed_content": "The Race for CongressPrimary Season TakeawaysVoting by MailLatest PollsCompetitive RacesSeat PickupsAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTDemocrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls FindThe party\u2019s nominees lead in Michigan and New Hampshire but the Republican incumbent is ahead in Maine, according to New York Times\/Siena polls of the three battlegrounds.Listen \u00b7 9:04 min Share full article\n \n \n \n The New York Times\/Siena poll Sept. 15-22 If this year\u2019s general election for the U.S. Senate were held today, which candidate would you be more likely to vote for? Maine Troy Jackson Susan Collins Michigan Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers New Hampshire Chris Pappas John Sununu Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent the margin of error. Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls Find - The New York Times\n \n Based on a New York Times\/Siena\/Portland Press Herald poll of 619 voters in Maine and on New York Times\/Siena polls of 605 voters in Michigan and 613 voters in New Hampshire.Jillian Vordick\/The New York TimesBy Lisa LererRuth Igielnik and Sophia JuneSept. 24, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ETSee more of our coverage in your search results.Encuentra m\u00e1s de nuestra cobertura en los resultados de b\u00fasqueda. Add The New York Times on GoogleAgrega The New York Times en Google Democrats appear to be holding off Republican attempts to flip Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire but are struggling in their efforts to oust a Republican in Maine, according to New York Times\/Siena University polls of three battlegrounds.In Michigan, the party\u2019s nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, has consolidated Democratic support despite worries about party unity after a divisive primary race. He leads his Republican opponent, former Representative Mike Rogers, by five percentage points.In New Hampshire, the Democratic nominee, Representative Chris Pappas, is running five points ahead of his Republican rival, former Senator John E. Sununu. The result could dampen Republican hopes that the state might be more competitive than expected.But in Maine, Senator Susan Collins, who has been seen as her party\u2019s most vulnerable incumbent, holds an edge of three points over Troy Jackson, her Democratic challenger. Her showing, which comes after a sudden switch of the Democratic nominee, could fuel Democratic worries that they will again lose to Ms. Collins in the light-blue state.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT[Follow all of the latest polls heading into November\u2019s elections.]The results underscore the uncertainty both parties are confronting in a series of tight Senate contests. While Republicans are navigating an increasingly grim national political environment, Democrats face a challenge in winning races against well-established G.O.P. politicians with long histories of serving their states.To win control of the Senate, Democrats must flip four Republican-held seats, including some in states President Trump won by double digits, and keep all of their own. Maine was widely considered Democrats\u2019 best chance of defeating an incumbent Republican, but their prospects were scrambled after the summer implosion of Graham Platner\u2019s campaign and Mr. Jackson\u2019s quick ascent.The survey is the worst result for Mr. Jackson in any public poll since he earned the nomination in July.\n \n \n \n How the Times\/Siena polls compare MaineMich.N.H.Times\/Siena Likely voters, Sept. 15\u201322R+3D+5D+5Washington Post\/George Mason Likely voters, Sept. 10\u201314No pollD+3No pollCNN\/SSRS Likely voters, Aug. 31\u2013Sept. 6D+3D+3No pollFox News\/Beacon & Shaw Registered voters, Aug. 6\u201310D+2R+4No poll Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls Find - The New York Times\n \n Note: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available.Jillian Vordick\/The New York TimesThe poll was conducted almost entirely before ProPublica published a report on Tuesday detailing how the F.B.I. in 2025 shut down an inquiry into allegations that a top ally of Ms. Collins\u2019s had participated in a scheme to funnel illegal campaign contributions from a defense contractor. A Collins spokeswoman vigorously denied the allegations.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe poll found that independent voters, a crucial group, were deeply divided over whom to support in the three states. In both Michigan and Maine, independents were nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. In New Hampshire, the group leaned toward supporting Mr. Pappas, the Democrat, by 10 points.In all three states, the Democratic candidates are being lifted by a broad dislike of Mr. Trump and his policies. A majority of voters disapproved of his handling of a series of top issues, including immigration, tariffs, the war with Iran, the cost of living and gas prices. Nearly two-thirds of voters described the president as generally focused on the wrong issues.\u201cI hate to be so partisan, but my feelings right now are there are no Republicans that are willing to stand up to Trump,\u201d said Scott Grady, an independent from Hillsborough, N.H., who is supporting Mr. Pappas. \u201cThat\u2019s forcing me to not even look at the Republican side of the ticket and just want to vote straight Democratic.\u201dYet across all three states, the Republican nominees for Senate outperformed Mr. Trump\u2019s 35 percent approval rating, sometimes by double digits. Their stronger standing signals that some G.O.P. candidates might be able to overcome the drag that the unpopular president is causing on his party.While a majority of voters in these states view the Republican Party as too far to the right, most voters do not see the G.O.P. candidates in their states as too extreme.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTAnd in all three states, support for the individual Democratic candidates falls short of a general desire for the party to win power in Congress. Overall, 54 percent of voters said they would prefer Democrats to control the Senate, a greater share than the percentage supporting any of the three candidates.In Maine, 12 percent of voters who said they preferred Democrats to control the Senate also said they planned to support Ms. Collins \u2014 a split that helped explain her lead.Sign up for the On Politics newsletter. It's a pivotal moment for American politics. Join us for 2026 and beyond. Get it sent to your inbox.Views of Ms. Collins have warmed slightly since June, when she was narrowly underwater with voters in the last Times\/Siena poll of Maine. Now a majority \u2014 51 percent \u2014 view her positively, including nearly half of independent voters.Ms. Collins is also seen by a majority of Maine voters as more likely than Mr. Jackson to be an effective senator and as having better character. By contrast, Mr. Jackson is viewed more unfavorably than favorably.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT\n \n \n \n The New York Times\/Siena poll Sept. 15-22 Favorability ratings of U.S. Senate candidates in each state Net favorability Democratic candidateRepublican candidate Maine \u20138 pts.+3 pts.Michigan +4 pts.\u20136 pts.New Hampshire \u20131 pt.\u20131 pt. Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls Find - The New York Times\n \n Based on a New York Times\/Siena\/Portland Press Herald poll of 619 voters in Maine and on New York Times\/Siena polls of 605 voters in Michigan and 613 voters in New Hampshire. Net favorability is the share of respondents who view the candidate favorably minus the share who view the candidate unfavorably.Jillian Vordick\/The New York TimesThe survey shows that voters tend to agree with what Ms. Collins has pitched as her strongest selling point: that she delivers for the state. By a wide margin, voters were more likely to see her as better at bringing money and resources to Maine as they were to say the same of Mr. Jackson.Ms. Collins still faces headwinds in the state, though. A majority of Mainers, including a majority of independents and 12 percent of Republicans, said they preferred a candidate who would provide a check on Mr. Trump.Claude Junkins, a Republican in Holden, Maine, said he planned to support Ms. Collins despite her support of Mr. Trump.\u201cSometimes she does go with some of Trump\u2019s crazy ideas, and you\u2019ve got to wonder sometimes what she\u2019s thinking,\u201d said Mr. Junkins, 70, a retired facilities director.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTBut he added: \u201cShe works for Maine. If it\u2019s got anything to do with Maine, she\u2019s going to fight for us.\u201dIn Michigan, support for Dr. El-Sayed appears to be fueled by the popularity of his economic message and his vocal support for single-payer health care. He is more trusted to handle the cost of living by nine points, the only Democrat who is more trusted on the issue across the three states. And despite a bitter primary, a whopping 95 percent of Democrats are now supporting his candidacy.Dr. El-Sayed is also winning 8 percent of voters who supported Mr. Trump in the 2024 election, more than either of the other two Democrats in the survey.Abel Kang, a social worker from Grand Rapids, said he knew very little about Mr. Rogers other than his support of Mr. Trump. Mr. Kang said he planned to support Dr. El-Sayed largely because of economic issues and his support of single-payer health care.\u201cHe is talking about free health care,\u201d said Mr. Kang, 47, an independent. \u201cPersonally, I think that is a necessity. It\u2019s a basic human need.\u201dAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT\n \n \n \n The New York Times\/Siena Poll Sept. 15-22 Do you think the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate would do a better job on \u2026 MaineMichiganNew Hampshire Foreign wars Dem. +4Dem. +3Dem. +1Health care +3+24+20Data centers +2+11+7The cost of living Even+8+2Doing what\u2019s best for ordinary people +1+6EvenThe Israeli-Palestinian conflict +2+1EvenSupporting American manufacturing +11+3+13Being an effective senator +11+4+2 \n \n Based on a New York Times\/Siena\/Portland Press Herald poll of 619 voters in Maine and on New York Times\/Siena polls of 605 voters in Michigan and 613 voters in New Hampshire.Jillian Vordick\/The New York TimesIn all three Senate races, economic worries far outpace concerns about foreign policy \u2014 either the war with Iran or the situation in Israel and Gaza. Thirty-six percent said economic concerns, including jobs, inflation and the cost of living, were the most important issue deciding their vote, while only eight percent named foreign policy.Concerns about foreign policy were more pronounced in New Hampshire and Michigan, where debates over Israel have raged in both the Democratic primary and the general election.Voters in Michigan were divided over which candidate they trusted to best handle foreign wars: 46 percent preferred Dr. El-Sayed, while 43 percent preferred Mr. Rogers.\u201cI trust him zero percent,\u201d Sandra Campbell, a self-described moderate conservative from Macomb county, said of Dr. El-Sayed. \u201cI think that he would lean more toward foreign policy that would be anti-American.\u201dAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTIn recent weeks, Republicans have grown more hopeful of pulling off an upset in New Hampshire, which is seen as competitive despite not electing a Republican to the Senate since 2010. But the poll indicates that Mr. Pappas has a comfortable lead.Still, even in New Hampshire, views of the Democratic Party brand remain dim, with majorities saying Democrats are divided and generally focused on the wrong issues.Across all three states, 44 percent of Democrats said they identified as \u201cdemocratic socialist,\u201d while 50 percent said they did not. Just 21 percent of Democrats viewed socialism unfavorably.\u201cThe Democrats need to get a message,\u201d said Laura Platt-Lunardo, an independent from Exeter, N.H., who is supporting Mr. Pappas. \u201cAnd they need to get some core things down, like this is what we\u2019re actually going to do and this is how we\u2019re going to do it.\u201d\n \n \n \nHere are the key things to know about these New York Times\/Siena polls: Interviewers spoke with about 600 voters per state in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire from Sept. 15 to 22, 2026. The poll of Maine was sponsored in part by the Maine Trust for Local News and conducted in collaboration with the Portland Press Herald.The polls were conducted by telephone using live interviewers. Overall, nearly 95 percent of respondents were contacted on their cellphones.Voters were selected for each survey from a list of voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For these polls, interviewers placed more than 235,000 calls to more than 85,000 voters.To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under \u201cComposition of the Sample.\u201dThe margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points when the three states are analyzed together and about 5 percentage points in each state. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here. \n \n AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
    "published_at": "2026-09-24T09:02:40+00:00",
    "author_name": "Lisa Lerer, Ruth Igielnik, Sophia June",
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    "ai_headline": "Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls Find",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls Find",
    "ai_excerpt": "New York Times\/Siena polls indicate Democrats are holding off Republican challenges in Michigan and New Hampshire Senate races, but are struggling to unseat the Republican incumbent in Maine. The results highlight the uncertainty in tight Senate contests.",
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