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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.unep.org\/news-and-stories\/press-release\/unep-world-set-cross-15degc-global-warming-can-still-limit-adapt-and?utm_source=cnn_Global+Briefing&utm_medium=email",
    "parsed_content": "Report puts best-case scenario peak temperature rise at 1.8\u00b0C; others suggest over 2\u00b0CAbove 1.5\u00b0C, climate impacts and risks of tipping points intensify with every fraction of a degree\u2018Overshoot, peak and decline\u2019 pathway best remaining option to help vulnerable nations and communities cope and return to below 1.5\u00b0C\u00a0Nairobi, 2 September 2026 \u2013 Global temperature rise is set to cross 1.5\u00b0C, likely within the next few years, pushing climate risks and impacts to increasingly dangerous heights, but it is still possible to bring temperatures down and achieve global goals in the Paris Agreement, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report.\u00a0The report, Limiting Overshoot, identifies an \u2018overshoot, peak, and decline\u2019 pathway as the best remaining option to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and try to return to below 1.5\u00b0C as soon as possible.\u00a0\u201cThis summer\u2019s scorching heat, raging wildfires and deadly floods are a warning of what lies ahead. We must make the overshoot above 1.5 degrees as small and short as possible. That demands an overshoot of ambition\u201d said UN Secretary-General Ant\u0151nio Guterres.\u00a0This pathway would minimize peak temperature rise through immediate and sustained cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the road to net-zero, and bring down temperatures through long-term net-negative emissions, with carefully governed Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) \u2013 the process of removing carbon from the air and storing it through afforestation or other means \u2013 an essential part of the mix.\u00a0At the same time, following this pathway would involve adaptation actions that reduce vulnerability to the current, expected and unexpected impacts of climate change on societies, communities and economies \u2013 although there will likely be limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts, especially if peak temperatures are not minimized. The report stresses such a pathway would reduce risks and impacts, make adaptation less difficult and expensive, and increase the chances of lowering temperatures.\u00a0\u201cThere are no good outcomes if we remain above 1.5\u00b0C. Across the globe, extreme heatwaves are already proving that climate impacts will strike faster, hit harder, and last longer - costing more lives and causing deeper disruption,\u201d said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. \u201cNow is the time we must double down on climate action. We can \u2013 and must \u2013 get on the right path. By cutting greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation, and ensuring exceedance of 1.5\u00b0C is as small and short as possible.\u201dDevastating impactsThe most optimistic scenario will see temperature rise peak at 1.8\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, above the goal of limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C set by the Paris Agreement. Most other scenarios predict higher peaks.Above 1.5\u00b0C, risks and impacts will intensify with every extra fraction of a degree and every year. Anticipated impacts include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss, and submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities. Severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure, and economies is expected.The report warns that the likelihood of crossing irreversible tipping points increases with the magnitude and duration of higher temperatures. These include the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the system of currents that moves warm surface water north and cold deep water south, playing a key role in regulating the climate). Some impacts may emerge abruptly, while others will accumulate over time.Considering the scale of the risks and the co-benefits of climate interventions such as a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy \u2013 improving air quality and public health, lowering energy costs and increasing access to electricity \u2013 the report urges accelerated, collective and global action to get on an overshoot, peak and decline pathway. How quickly and strongly this action happens will define the shape and trajectory of the pathway.Conditions for successStrong political will and multilateralism, effective policies, inclusive governance, and finance are all important enabling conditions for action \u2013 and equity and justice must underpin all responses. Countries with greater responsibility for climate change should act the fastest with the greatest ambition.The report also finds that mitigation and adaptation, which are mutually reinforcing, must advance together, while being responsive to emerging risks. Interventions that achieve both mitigation and adaptation goals \u2013 such as nature-based cooling \u2013 should be prioritized.Adaptation set up now forms the foundation for efforts to come, but it must become transformational and responsive to evolving non-linear and abruptly arising risks \u2013 including those that will harm mitigation efforts.The report emphasizes that net-zero is a milestone towards net-negative, with CDR needed in addition to, not instead of, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, CDR can only contribute credibly to a return below 1.5\u00b0C if peak warming remains well below 2\u00b0C and all residual emissions are reduced. Strong governance frameworks for CDR will be critical to allow responsible deployment and manage implications for environmental integrity, equity, scale.Responding to a changed futureYears of inaction mean that even if a return to below 1.5\u00b0C is secured, irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are certain. Many communities may be forced to relocate or change livelihoods, while societies will face the challenge of re-adjustment. This raises issues of justice, power, and political legitimacy, which will require new, inclusive governance arrangements to resolve difficult issues.This report is a reminder that an overshoot, peak and decline pathway is a next generation climate frontier, but one which cannot be left unattended to for the next generation to tackle. Immediate action is required for such a pathway to remain possible.NOTES TO EDITORSAdditional Quotes\u201cEvery fraction of a degree of warming above 1.5 leads to increasing and increasingly severe climate impacts, with our Pacific family standing on the frontlines. While we know the challenge is growing, so too is momentum. The recent energy crisis has reminded the world of the need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, accelerate the transition to renewable energy and bolster climate cooperation. COP31 is an opportunity to turn our ambition into action -- with T\u00fcrkiye, Australia and the Pacific delivering a practical, solutions-focused COP.\u201d \u2013 Chris Bowen, Australian Minister for Climate Change and Energy, and President of Negotiations for COP31.\u201cEvery fraction of a degree matters, and every year spent in overshoot increases climate risks and the potential for irreversible losses. The Overshoot Report makes clear that exceeding 1.5\u00b0C should not be seen as a new destination, but as a pathway we must urgently work to minimize and reverse. This requires rapid and sustained emissions reductions, alongside ambitious adaptation to protect people, communities and ecosystems.\u00a0COP31 must turn this urgency into concrete action. We need to accelerate global electrification, reduce methane emissions from waste, strengthen the climate resilience of cities, and enhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems. At the same time, mitigation and adaptation should advance together. The choices we make today will determine how high temperatures peak, how long they remain there, and how safely we can return to 1.5\u00b0C.\u201d - H.E. Murat Kurum, COP31 President-Designate\u00a0About the UN Environment Programme (UNEP)UNEP is the leading global voice on the environment. It provides leadership and encourages partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.For more information, please contact:News and Media Unit, UN Environment Programme",
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    "ai_headline": "UNEP: World Set to Cross 1.5\u00b0C Global Warming, Can Still Limit, Adapt, and Return",
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