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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/22\/weather\/noreaster-storm-flooding-virginia-new-york.html?emc=edit_na_20260923&nl=breaking-news&segment_id=226948",
    "parsed_content": "Hurricane SeasonliveHurricane Polo UpdatesSept. 23, 2026, 1:59 p.m. ET11m agoAtlantic ForecastWeather Service CutsDisaster AidA.I. ForecastsAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTHow a Brewing Storm Could Slam the East Coast This Week (or Not)A nor\u2019easter in September is unusual. As its forecast took shape, there was still uncertainty over what it would do.Listen \u00b7 5:58 min Share full articleA storm could bring heavy rain to New York this week, but forecasters warned the exact path was still very uncertain.Credit...Justin Lane\/The New York TimesBy Nazaneen GhaffarNazaneen Ghaffar is a reporter on The Times\u2019s weather team.Published Sept. 22, 2026Updated Sept. 23, 2026, 2:07 p.m. ETSee more of our coverage in your search results.Encuentra m\u00e1s de nuestra cobertura en los resultados de b\u00fasqueda. Add The New York Times on GoogleAgrega The New York Times en Google Go here for the latest on the storm\u2019s forecast.The East Coast of the United States hasn\u2019t experienced a hurricane this year, but forecasters have warned that a storm taking shape this week could bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rain as it moves through the region.The storm formed on Wednesday in the western Atlantic, off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, and forecast to intensify as it moves north in the coming days. The biggest impacts are expected from Friday into the weekend, especially along the New England coast.But early Wednesday, there was still a lot of uncertainty about the storm\u2019s exact path and how strong it will become, especially later in the week, which could lead to vastly different outcomes. What to know as the storm takes shapeThe setupThe scenariosThe impactsIs El Ni\u00f1o to blame?AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe setupThe storm is technically a nor\u2019easter, a type of storm that more commonly stirs visions of heavy snow and plunging temperatures.But the term applies broadly to storms that move along the Eastern Seaboard with winds that blow from the northeast. These types of storms typically occur between November and March. A nor\u2019easter in September is relatively early, but not unheard of.That much forecasters were certain of at the start of the week. But as with many wintertime nor\u2019easters, there is considerable uncertainty about what this storm will do over the next few days and where it will do it.The scenariosIn the days before a storm actually forms, weather forecasters use computer prediction models to help them understand where it might go. The nearer those models are to the date of the storm, the more accurate they tend to be. And sometimes, as with this one, the models can disagree about a storm\u2019s most likely path, which becomes clearer only as the days advance.If this storm becomes more organized just a bit later or earlier, or if it shifts a little to the east or to the west as it moves north, there are significant differences in where the strongest winds and rain would occur. Some models on Tuesday showed the storm staying farther offshore, and others brought it closer to the Northeast coast.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTBob Oravec, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center, an arm of the National Weather Service, said this storm could be notably strong, with the potential for multiple days of strong winds, coastal flooding, high surf, rip currents and possible beach erosion.\u201cEspecially from Cape Cod northward to coastal Massachusetts, maybe into Boston, coastal New Hampshire, coastal Maine,\u201d he said early Tuesday. \u201cReally anywhere along the New England coast could be stormy.\u201dDepending on the storm\u2019s exact track, rain and strong winds could also reach areas farther inland across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Mr. Oravec said.The impactsEmergency agencies and local weather offices along the East Coast were already preparing for the storm, even as the path was uncertain.In North Carolina, gale watches were upgraded to warnings on Tuesday, because forecasters said strong winds from the storm were expected to arrive sooner. A coastal watch was also issued for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, a part of the state where dozens of beachfront houses have been swept away by powerful waves in recent years.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTForecasters said the strongest winds and greatest risk of coastal impacts there were expected Thursday into Friday, particularly across the Outer Banks as the storm coincides with the peak lunar tides of the month.Seas and surf could become increasingly dangerous through the weekend, even far from the storm\u2019s center. From North Carolina to Boston, and most points in between, local Weather Service offices expected seas to be 10 feet or more above normal by Thursday.On Tuesday, as the models and meteorologists were fine-tuning their forecasts, there remained considerable uncertainty over how much rain would fall. A path closer to land could deliver more rain to cities like New York and Boston. But if the storm remains farther out to sea, there is far less likelihood of wind and rainfall effects in the major cities.Still, forecasters were warning that heavy rain was likely in portions of New England and North Carolina.\u201cWe have some heavy rainfall amounts along the New England coast,\u201d Mr. Oravec said. \u201cWe\u2019re forecasting over five inches of rain right along across Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, Cape Cod.\u201dAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTNowhere was the difference between a little rain and a lot of rain more clear than the Outer Banks: The area could get only a half-inch if the storm forms farther from the coast, but six inches or more could fall if it happens closer.Is El Ni\u00f1o to blame?Indirectly.You might have heard about the powerful El Ni\u00f1o that has been brewing this year. El Ni\u00f1o is a natural weather pattern that peaks in the winter, but it doesn\u2019t, by itself, cause one storm to grow strong or a heat wave to settle in.As the seasons change and El Ni\u00f1o becomes the dominant global weather pattern, it has a tendency in winter to create patterns that push storms like this across the Southern United States and up the East Coast. Coastal towns between New York and Georgia routinely shatter high-tide flood records during El Ni\u00f1o years, not only during severe winter storms, but also on sunny days with no storm in sight.Judson Jones contributed reporting.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
    "published_at": "2026-09-22T19:13:02+00:00",
    "author_name": "Nazaneen Ghaffar",
    "site_name": "The New York Times",
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    "ai_headline": "How a Brewing Storm Could Slam the East Coast This Week (or Not)",
    "ai_simplified_title": "East Coast Braces for Uncertain Nor'easter Impact This Week",
    "ai_excerpt": "A nor'easter is forming off the East Coast, with forecasters warning of potential hurricane-force winds and heavy rain. The storm's exact path and intensity remain uncertain, leading to vastly different potential outcomes for the region.",
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