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Narges Bajoghli, a SAIS professor, analyzes the situation in Iran after recent protests and rising tensions with the U.S. She believes the regime has reestablished control and doesn't see imminent collapse. The article discusses the regime's structure, potential outcomes, and the role of regional actors.
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- AI Headline
- What to know about the future of Iran and U.S. relations after protests
- Simplified Title
- Bajoghli Analyzes Iran US Relations After Protests February 2026
- AI Excerpt
- Narges Bajoghli, a SAIS professor, analyzes the situation in Iran after recent protests and rising tensions with the U.S. She believes the regime has reestablished control and doesn't see imminent collapse. The article discusses the regime's structure, potential outcomes, and the role of regional actors.
- Subject Tags
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Iran United States Protests International Relations Regime Change Geopolitics Middle East
- Context Type
- Analysis
- AI Confidence Score
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1.000
- Context Details
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{ "tone": "analytical", "perspective": "academic", "audience": "general", "credibility_indicators": [ "expert_quotes" ] }
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Completed
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- Donato V. Pompo
- Submission Date
- February 14, 2026 at 4:11 PM
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{ "source_type": "extension", "content_hash": "9c7be9b92da6fc9a191f319470c777fc8440c72cbfdd6a2cc7022da69ad865ff", "submitted_via": "chrome_extension", "extension_version": "1.0.18", "original_url": "https:\/\/washingtondc.jhu.edu\/news\/what-to-know-about-iran-february-2026\/", "parsed_content": "February 5, 2026\n \n What to know about the future of Iran and U.S. relations after protests\n \n \n Share\n \n \n \n Facebook\n \n \n \n \n \n LinkedIn\n \n \n \n \n X\n \n \n \n \n Email\n \n \n \n \n \n \nSAIS professor\u00a0Narges\u00a0Bajoghli\u00a0doesn\u2019t\u00a0see signs of\u00a0imminent regime\u00a0change.\u00a0\n \n \n Featured expert\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n Narges Bajoghli\n Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)\n Expertise: Iran, resistance movements, social movements, feminism, revolutions\n \n About Narges\n \n \n \n \n \nAfter the escalation of recent protests and with tensions rising between the U.S. and Iran, the world is preoccupied with the question of the regime\u2019s stability. But Narges Bajoghli, associate professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), says the Islamic Republic\u2019s government has reestablished control over the country after massive nationwide protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse.\nHere, Bajoghli, author of Iran Reframed: Anxieties of Power in the Islamic Republic, weighs in on Iran\u2019s changing place in the global order and how the recent protests are both similar and different from previous ones the regime has faced.\nThis interview has been lightly edited for clarity and brevity.\nWhat\u2019s your big takeaway on the situation in Iran right now?\nWe just witnessed massive nationwide protests in Iran followed by an unprecedented massacre by state forces, the largest in Iran\u2019s modern history. With the build-up of U.S. military assets in the region, the Trump administration aims to continue maximizing pressure on Tehran. However, the narrative being built\u2014that the regime is ready to be toppled at any point, and that a U.S. strike would deal a death blow to the Islamic Republic\u2014does not reflect the reality on the ground. The Islamic Republic is structured for siege. Bombing campaigns could significantly destroy military and civilian infrastructure in Iran, but for regime change, the U.S. would have to be prepared to fight not just a standing military in a country the size of Western Europe, but a system with decades of experience in asymmetric warfare.\nAmerican analysts often underestimate the strength of the Iranian regime, which is structured for survival. The Iranian military has a dual architecture designed to resist coups and invasions: Artesh, the regular armed forces of around 420,000 men across ground, naval, air, and air-defense forces, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite, ideologically driven military with roughly 190,000 personnel across ground, naval, and air branches. Beyond them are vast paramilitary networks with hundreds of thousands of members embedded in every corner of Iranian society\u2014across rural and urban areas, in neighborhoods, in the streets, and in schools. They aren\u2019t just loyalists of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They are woven into a deeper idea of the state and are committed to the independence of Iran from outside powers.\nIf a regime is going to change or collapse, you need to see its main institutions of power either buckling under pressure or experiencing huge defections, especially at the elite levels. You also need to see other nodes of power poised to fill the vacuum. We don\u2019t see any indications of that at this point. There are no defections in the military or security realms. No defections are even happening across the political spectrum of the Islamic Republic itself.\n\u201cIf a regime is going to change or collapse, you need to see its main institutions of power either buckling under pressure or experiencing huge defections, especially at the elite levels. You also need to see other nodes of power poised to fill the vacuum. We don\u2019t see any indications of that at this point.\u201d\nInstead of traditional regime change, the outcome could be state or regime collapse. But what comes next will likely not be surrender. The Revolutionary Guards\u2019 Quds Force, which helped organize militias across the region to bleed American troops in Iraq, is well positioned to do so again. These networks were established across Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to sow instability in the region. Israel has significantly weakened the existing militias, but Tehran retains the ability to foment militias against American interests in the region. This is one of the main reasons we\u2019re seeing other regional actors so heavily involved in mediating efforts between the U.S. and Iran.\nIn the eyes of many Iranians inside Iran, the Islamic Republic has long lost legitimacy, and the recent killings are unforgivable. But turning those grievances against the regime into an oppositional force capable of dealing with a vast and diffuse array of armed groups loyal to the state is a deep challenge.\nHow are these protests similar or different from previous ones?\nIt\u2019s both different from and a continuation of protests and uprisings from the past. Since 2009, large segments of Iran\u2019s population have called for \u201cdown with the dictator\u201d in nearly every protest movement. The biggest difference this time around is the scale and how quickly it spread to provinces and small towns across the country, and the willingness by some segments to confront the regime with arms. \nThe core issue of economic grievances and the involvement of the working class and poor in smaller towns is more similar to the uprisings that happened over the economic situation in 2018 and 2019. It\u2019s different from the mobilization in 2023 over the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which was led by civil society activists and organizations. The Woman, Life, Freedom movement gained the biggest concessions in the history of the Islamic Republic by making the mandatory hijab a non-issue, but that came through sustained organizing and nonviolent campaigns of everyday resistance.\nThe current uprisings in December and January did not start from existing spaces of civic and political organization on the ground. This was initially an outpouring of rage over the economic situation that then quickly turned into calls for the downfall of the regime.\nThe other component of this that makes it very different is the level of violence, primarily by the state, as well as the willingness of some protestors to take up armed resistance, which is a departure from mass movements in the past 20 years in Iran.\nIran\u2019s situation is much different from what it was a year and a half ago. How has that affected the regime\u2019s response?\nThe situation across the region, in general, is changing very fast, not only with Iran and its allied groups and proxy groups but also with other nations. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman are putting pressure on the Trump administration not to launch strikes or engage in more confrontation with Iran because the spillover effects across the region are going to be bad for their national security.\nYou also have the reality that while Iran and its allied groups in the region have been weakened, Turkey and Saudi Arabia see that Israel is becoming bolder in the region, and they\u2019re hedging against that.\nWhat do you expect to see from the U.S. in the short term, and how could it impact the situation?\nI can\u2019t predict what the president may do, but the fact is, he sent a very large armada to Iran recently. Some within the administration and some allies want confrontation, but the president also doesn\u2019t seem to like prolonged, long-term foreign interventions. We saw that in the 12-Day War last June. We saw his preference for quick action rather than prolonged confrontation in Venezuela.\nThe problem is that he doesn\u2019t have a Venezuela-like option with Iran right now. This is what makes this a very difficult situation. It\u2019s not just one strike, and that\u2019s the end of it, because Iran sees this as an existential conflict and retains significant ability to inflict damage on U.S. assets and allies across the region, even despite it being battered over the past year. I think one of the reasons we haven\u2019t seen a U.S. strike yet is because there is no easy or even obvious military option that does not lead to a longer conflict, which the president has signaled he is not interested in. Leaders across the region are worried because it could spark a major regional confrontation. We have to wait and see what decision the U.S. makes.\nWhat do you see as the most likely way this conflict resolves?\nThe two options are either military confrontation or some kind of diplomatic deal. Currently, most regional actors are pushing for a diplomatic solution to avoid war and its spillover effects. But there is very little trust between the U.S. and Iran, especially since the 12-Day War. It is a highly combustible situation.\n \n \n Read next\n \n \n \n \n 4 things the U.S. should know to understand Iran\u2019s true motives", "ai_headline": "What to know about the future of Iran and U.S. relations after protests", "ai_simplified_title": "Bajoghli Analyzes Iran US Relations After Protests February 2026", "ai_excerpt": "Narges Bajoghli, a SAIS professor, analyzes the situation in Iran after recent protests and rising tensions with the U.S. She believes the regime has reestablished control and doesn't see imminent collapse. The article discusses the regime's structure, potential outcomes, and the role of regional actors.", "ai_subject_tags": [ "Iran", "United States", "Protests", "International Relations", "Regime Change", "Geopolitics", "Middle East" ], "ai_context_type": "Analysis", "ai_context_details": { "tone": "analytical", "perspective": "academic", "audience": "general", "credibility_indicators": [ "expert_quotes" ] }, "ai_source_vector": [ 0.0004083254, 0.040992144, -0.012660741, -0.08305742, 0.010872269, 0.0025687586, -0.008625284, 0.006908848, 0.0019075694, 0.009679228, -0.023196854, -0.022675313, 0.0008252592, 0.015305374, 0.08591886, 0.021073515, 0.00861427, 0.028167075, 0.016133126, 0.021615462, -0.0032633396, -0.018451009, -0.054990567, 0.020246621, 0.027633755, -0.02849676, -0.0043815677, 0.038847122, 0.013458404, 0.0019429075, -0.0072865393, -0.014121724, 0.02683998, 0.008242388, 0.0061185895, 0.007197681, -0.016100597, -0.008770656, 0.014772781, -0.011918391, 0.014524286, 0.01968199, 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February 5, 2026 What to know about the future of Iran and U.S. relations after protests Share Facebook LinkedIn X Email SAIS professorΒ NargesΒ BajoghliΒ doesnβtΒ see signs ofΒ imminent regimeΒ change.Β Featured expert Narges Bajoghli Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Expertise: Iran, resistance movements, social movements, feminism, revolutions About Narges After the escalation of recent protests and with tensions rising between the U.S. and Iran, the world is preoccupied with the question of the regimeβs stability. But Narges Bajoghli, associate professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), says the Islamic Republicβs government has reestablished control over the country after massive nationwide protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse. Here, Bajoghli, autho...
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Claims from this Source (32)
All claims extracted from this source document.
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf8-4246-4d51-91fa-df864922d6f2Simplified: It is highly combustible situation
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf8-1077-4e24-bf05-55099bfbe85bSimplified: There is very little trust between U.S. and Iran especially since 12-Day War
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Simplified: Narges Bajoghli does not see signs of imminent regime change
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Simplified: The Islamic Republic government has reestablished control over Iran after protests and shows no signs of immediate collapse
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Political , Historical π a1179cf3-2a1a-4c8f-b5ba-d412a7f850abSimplified: Recent protests are similar and different from previous ones
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Simplified: The Iranian military has a dual architecture: Artesh and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
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Simplified: They are not just loyalists of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
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Simplified: They are woven into a deeper idea of the state and are committed to Iran's independence
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Simplified: The Revolutionary Guardsβ Quds Force is well positioned to organize militias again
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Historical , Political π a1179cf5-12ae-4fca-a247-bafe92f72a4cSimplified: Since 2009 large segments of Iran's population have called for down with the dictator in nearly every protest movement
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Historical , Political π a1179cf5-59b9-49bb-adf6-168a7d02941dSimplified: The core issue of economic grievances and involvement of the working class is similar to 2018 and 2019 uprisings
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Historical , Political π a1179cf5-866f-4853-b852-e9ba8d43f064Simplified: It is different from the 2023 Woman Life Freedom movement
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Historical , Political π a1179cf5-ae86-4072-a59e-6896c908469dSimplified: The Woman Life Freedom movement gained the biggest concessions by making the mandatory hijab a non-issue
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π€ Narges Bajoghli π News Article π·οΈ Historical , Political π a1179cf5-d55d-4dfa-91b6-0390886ae7eeSimplified: The current uprisings did not start from existing spaces of civic and political organization
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf5-fdea-4a70-8451-9667b3e123b6Simplified: Outpouring of rage over economic situation turned into calls for downfall of regime
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-22dc-4b91-8c5b-4497e545ac60Simplified: Level of violence primarily by state and willingness of some protestors to take up armed resistance is a departure from mass movements in past 20 year...
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-47e2-4106-b785-e3b205e52ca1Simplified: Iran's situation is much different from a year and a half ago
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-7ee2-4af0-b59a-7c6fa9f5b3e1Simplified: Turkey Saudi Arabia Qatar and Oman are putting pressure on Trump administration not to launch strikes or engage in more confrontation with Iran becaus...
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-a399-40bd-92da-fbbecd2d85d3Simplified: Turkey and Saudi Arabia see Israel becoming bolder in region and they are hedging against that
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-cc3b-439f-8f2b-f4bcb31c3299Simplified: President sent a very large armada to Iran recently
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf6-f23d-4a7d-b123-59e98b050796Simplified: Some within administration and some allies want confrontation but president doesnβt seem to like prolonged long-term foreign interventions
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf7-158a-4fe4-b8cc-e6f55f7c4efbSimplified: We saw that in 12-Day War last June
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf7-5707-4f0f-a35c-724ca9f452c9Simplified: Iran sees this as existential conflict and retains significant ability to inflict damage on U.S. assets and allies across region even despite it being...
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf7-9224-4a2d-b96a-9ead002ad928Simplified: Leaders across region are worried because it could spark major regional confrontation
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf7-b320-4b08-a3a7-a0a2e7bba1b4Simplified: Two options are either military confrontation or some kind of diplomatic deal
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π€ The author π News Article π a1179cf7-dda8-4eb2-b2e6-a23b2d868ae7Simplified: Currently most regional actors are pushing for diplomatic solution to avoid war and its spillover effects