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The U.S. stock market has become highly concentrated, making even broad index funds less diversified than investors realize. The article discusses the implications of this concentration, particularly due to the rise of tech giants, and suggests strategies for mitigating risk.
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- Your βSafeβ Stock Funds May Be Riskier Than You Think
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- Jeff Sommer Analyzes Stock Market Concentration Risk
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- The U.S. stock market has become highly concentrated, making even broad index funds less diversified than investors realize. The article discusses the implications of this concentration, particularly due to the rise of tech giants, and suggests strategies for mitigating risk.
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Stock Market Investment Diversification Index Funds Tech Stocks Risk Management Finance
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- Analysis
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1.000
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{ "tone": "analytical", "perspective": "neutral", "audience": "general", "credibility_indicators": [ "expert_quotes", "data_cited" ] }
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- February 12, 2026 at 10:42 PM
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{ "source_type": "extension", "content_hash": "81cb56f572f549b1f9b6f5837a6e4ab432cd840ad95fa842f29db6d7869818f9", "submitted_via": "chrome_extension", "extension_version": "1.0.18", "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/30\/business\/stock-market-concentration-risk.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20260212&instance_id=171008&nl=from-the-times®i_id=122976029&segment_id=215195&user_id=b25c5730c89e0c73f75709d8f1254337", "parsed_content": "AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTStrategiesYour \u2018Safe\u2019 Stock Funds May Be Riskier Than You ThinkThe U.S. stock market has become so concentrated that even broad index funds are no longer well diversified, our columnist says.Listen to this article \u00b7 8:37 min Learn moreShare full articleCredit...Davide BonazziBy Jeff SommerJeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.Published Jan. 30, 2026Updated Feb. 2, 2026Even if you have been doing everything right and diversifying your investments as the textbooks suggest, you may be taking greater risk than you realize.What\u2019s happened is that a handful of companies, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple, have been driving stock returns. They, and a handful of other tech giants, including Amazon, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla, have become so valuable that their shares dwarf the rest of the market. That\u2019s well known, and even applauded, because these gargantuan stocks, many of them spurred by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, account for an outsize portion of the wealth that many people have gained in the market over the last three years.But there\u2019s a downside that isn\u2019t as well understood. The market has become so highly concentrated that even the most comprehensive U.S. stock index funds are no longer well diversified. In fact, by a strict legal definition, they now are not diversified at all. If you believed that by buying an index fund that mirrored the entire stock market you were being protected by true diversification, it\u2019s time to re-evaluate this crucial assumption.Why Spreading Risk MattersThe adage \u201cdon\u2019t put all your eggs in one basket\u201d is a reasonable starting point for thinking about long-term investing. It basically means owning a sufficient variety of securities to give yourself protection if some of your holdings run into trouble.Holding broad index funds is a standard way to accomplish this. Owning a bit of everything in a publicly traded market is usually said to give you plenty of diversification. The vast literature on finance has suggested this for more than 50 years. While I believe it\u2019s still largely true, it isn\u2019t entirely correct. The situation has changed for the first time since the advent of widely available index funds in the 1970s.Simply by tracking the stock market, S&P 500 index funds contain several stocks that each account for more than 5 percent of the index \u2014 with Nvidia itself making up 7.8 percent of the market on Dec. 31, 2025, according to final data from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, who retired earlier this month.Apple accounted for 6.9 percent of the index, Microsoft for 6.2 percent. And Alphabet, the holding company for Google, made up more than 5.6 percent of the index, when you include both of its share classes. Combined, the total value of the four stocks was equal to more than 26 percent of the S&P 500.I was aware of these numbers but didn\u2019t connect them directly to the issue of portfolio diversification. A reader brought this problem to my immediate attention recently. Fidelity Investments had sent her and other fund shareholders a letter saying that since Nov. 10, two major index funds, Fidelity 500 and Fidelity Total Market, were operating as \u201cnondiversified funds.\u201d She wanted to know whether the funds had changed in an important way. Why weren\u2019t they still diversified?When I looked into it, I found that the funds themselves haven\u2019t shifted their approach one iota. In an emailed statement, Fidelity said, \u201cThe benchmarks of those funds remain the same.\u201d They are still carefully tracking the stock market, as they have since their inception.Instead, what has changed is the U.S. stock market itself. It has become so top-heavy that index funds mirroring the overall market are breaching legal thresholds for diversification set by the Securities and Exchange Commission to protect investors. Fidelity was merely notifying its customers that it was making a legal adjustment in its funds acknowledging this shift \u2014 something, as I learned, that Vanguard, State Street, BlackRock and other companies with similar funds had already done in their own legal filings.5% and 25%Vanguard began making changes in disclosures for its broadest U.S. stock index funds in 2024, Michael W. Nolan, a Vanguard spokesman, told me. Five years earlier, the S.E.C. had given index funds the authority to operate in a nondiversified way, as long as they disclosed that change to shareholders and if it happened solely because the market had itself become nondiversified. The issue arose in 2019 for funds tracking so-called \u201cgrowth\u201d indexes, which focus on rapidly expanding companies, many with a tech orientation. The rising stock market value of the big tech companies made these indexes extremely concentrated.But now, that concentration has become so acute that it has made broader market indexes nondiversified, too. As Vanguard puts it in the prospectus of its Vanguard 500 Stock Index Fund, investors now need to be aware of \u201cnondiversification risk.\u201d\u201cBecause the fund seeks to closely track the composition of the fund\u2019s target index,\" the prospectus says, \u201cfrom time to time, more than 25 percent of the fund\u2019s total assets may be invested in issuers representing more than 5 percent of the fund\u2019s total assets due to an index rebalance or market movement, which would result in the fund being nondiversified under the Investment Company Act of 1940.\u201dThere is a danger when a fund becomes that concentrated, Vanguard warned. \u201cThe fund\u2019s performance may be hurt disproportionately by the poor performance of relatively few stocks, or even a single stock, and the fund\u2019s shares may experience significant fluctuations in value,\u201d the prospectus said.In other words, if the biggest trees fall, everyone will feel the forest shake.This isn\u2019t merely a problem for investors in S&P 500 funds, which is limited to the biggest stocks in the market. The issue goes far beyond that. The entire U.S. stock market is now nondiversified, using the classic definition. This is true whether you use the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market to define the stock market, which is what Fidelity does with its Fidelity Total Stock Market Index Fund, or whether you measure the market with the CRSP US Total Market Index, as Vanguard does for its Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.The stock market itself may fix the nondiversification dilemma. The market will become diversified again if the biggest stocks decline more rapidly in value than the smaller stocks. But if you\u2019re holding broad, no-longer-diversified funds when the market corrects itself, you will be hurt.Protect YourselfSo what does this mean for ordinary people? Simply put, for investors, I think it\u2019s inescapable that at least in this respect, the overall U.S. stock market isn\u2019t as safe as it has been for more than 50 years.Note that I\u2019m talking here only about market concentration, much of it caused by the tech boom linked to A.I. Other, bigger headline issues facing the nation and the world are affecting the markets, too. These include the civil unrest in Minnesota set off by violent immigration crackdowns, the Trump administration\u2019s pressure on the Federal Reserve, its use of tariffs to punish erstwhile friends, its threats to seize Greenland and its capture of the former president of Venezuela. I\u2019ll come back to the market implications of such issues in future columns.Market concentration has never reached this extreme level in my adult life. But it was commonplace until 1967, according to an analysis by the Vanguard Investment Advisory Research Center, using historical data from the Center for Research in Security Prices. The study went back to 1925, and at the start of every year from 1925 through 1967, the five biggest stocks \u2014 companies like AT&T, U.S. Steel, General Motors and Standard Oil of New Jersey \u2014 accounted for at least 25 percent of the value of the entire U.S. stock market. I wouldn\u2019t want to return to the worst aspects of that long era, which included the Great Depression. Stock returns were volatile.But because the U.S. market has produced great returns over the long run, including in many, if not all, of those top-heavy decades, I believe it\u2019s still wise to invest in stocks, and to use cheap, broad, low-cost index funds.Bad times will return to the stock market, however, as they periodically do. For reducing risk, it\u2019s always been wise to also hold cash and bonds, and to make sure that both your stock and bond investments include broad international allocations as well. Now, given the concentration in the U.S. market, it\u2019s even more prudent to do so.The rise of big tech stocks has been a wealth-building marvel, which may continue for years. Should the giants stumble and fall, broad diversification will be a balm. But it\u2019s hard to get it now by investing in the U.S. market alone.Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.A version of this article appears in print on Feb. 1, 2026, Section BU, Page 3 of the New York edition with the headline: \u2018Safe\u2019 Investments May Be Riskier Than You Think. 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<html lang="en" class="story nytapp-vi-article nytapp-vi-story story nytapp-vi-article " data-nyt-compute-assignment="fallback" xmlns:og="http://opengraphprotocol.org/schema/" data-rh="lang,class"><head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <title>Your βSafeβ Stock Funds May Be Riskier Than You Think - The New York Times</title> <meta data-rh="true" name="robots" content="noarchive, max-image-preview:large"><meta data-rh="true" name="description" content="The U.S. stock market has become so concentrated that even broad index funds are no longer well diversified, our columnist says."><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:url" content="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/business/stock-market-concentration-risk.html"><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:title" content="Your βSafeβ Stock Funds May Be Riskier Than You Think"><meta data-rh="true" property="twitter:description" content="The U.S. stock market has become so concentrated that even broad index funds are no longer well... - Parsed Content
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AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTStrategiesYour βSafeβ Stock Funds May Be Riskier Than You ThinkThe U.S. stock market has become so concentrated that even broad index funds are no longer well diversified, our columnist says.Listen to this article Β· 8:37 min Learn moreShare full articleCredit...Davide BonazziBy Jeff SommerJeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.Published Jan. 30, 2026Updated Feb. 2, 2026Even if you have been doing everything right and diversifying your investments as the textbooks suggest, you may be taking greater risk than you realize.Whatβs happened is that a handful of companies, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple, have been driving stock returns. They, and a handful of other tech giants, including Amazon, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla, have become so valuable that their shares dwarf the rest of the market. Thatβs well known, and even applauded, because these gargantuan stocks, many of them sp...
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Claims from this Source (17)
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Simplified: U.S. stock market has become so concentrated that even broad index funds are no longer well diversified
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A handful of companies, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple, have been driving stock returns.0.900Simplified: A handful of companies like Nvidia Microsoft Alphabet and Apple have been driving stock returns
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Simplified: Holding broad index funds is standard way to accomplish diversification
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S&P 500 index funds contain several stocks that each account for more than 5 percent of the index.0.950Simplified: S&P 500 index funds contain several stocks that each account for more than 5 percent of index
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Simplified: Nvidia made up 7.8 percent of market on Dec 31 2025
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Simplified: Apple accounted for 6.9 percent of index
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Simplified: Microsoft accounted for 6.2 percent
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Simplified: Alphabet made up more than 5.6 percent of index when including both share classes
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Simplified: Fidelity Investments sent letter saying Fidelity 500 and Fidelity Total Market were operating as nondiversified funds since Nov 10
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Simplified: Benchmarks of those funds remain same
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π€ Michael W. Nolan π News Article π·οΈ Regulation , Finance π a11637ae-721f-4e56-988f-051d90d3345aSimplified: S.E.C. gave index funds authority to operate in nondiversified way if disclosed to shareholders and market became nondiversified
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Simplified: You may be taking greater risk than you realize even if you are diversifying investments
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Simplified: Fund's performance may be hurt by poor performance of few stocks or single stock and fund's shares may experience significant fluctuations in value
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Simplified: Market will become diversified again if biggest stocks decline more rapidly than smaller stocks
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π€ The author π News Article π·οΈ Finance , Historical π a11637af-15c2-40ca-857c-f82f2748d8b6Simplified: Market concentration was commonplace until 1967 according to Vanguard Investment Advisory Research Center analysis