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                "text": "Political scientists warn the US is sliding towards autocracy, citing Trump's actions and a six-step model of democratic erosion.",
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    "parsed_content": "Keep in touch with the Argonaut: Get email alerts for this weekly column by Dan VerganoEnter your emailI agree my information will be processed in accordance with the Scientific American and Springer Nature Limited Privacy Policy.Sign UpAs president, Donald Trump pretty much checks all the warning boxes for an autocrat. Last September Scientific American warned of Trump\u2019s \u201cnonsensical conspiracy fantasies,\u201d that he \u201cignores the climate crisis\u201d and has fondness for \u201cunqualified ideologues,\u201d whom he would appoint should he become president again. It\u2019s now May and sadly, that all checks out.The U.S. is in a bad place and, scholars warn, looks to be headed for worse.Worse even than Trump\u2019s relentless attacks on science have been his administration\u2019s assaults on the law. His officials have illegally fired federal workers, impounded congressional appropriations and seized people off the street for deportations to foreign prisons, threatening the same for all U.S. citizens. \u201cThe depth and breadth of this administration\u2019s disregard for civil liberties, political pluralism, the separation of powers and legal constraints of all kinds mark it as an authoritarian regime,\u201d law professor David Pozen of the Columbia University School of Law told the New York Times in April.We should all be worried that the U.S. is headed toward an autocracy\u2014government by one person\u2014even without political science offering a warning. But scholarship on how nations descend into this unfortunate state, seen in places like Turkey and Hungary, might not surprise you with what it suggests about the U.S.\u201cSince Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration, the country has embarked on the slippery slope toward autocracy,\u201d concludes political scientist Daniel Stockemer of the University of Ottawa, in a May report in Politics & Policy. Rather than a coup, Trump\u2019s attacks on law firms, universities, immigrants and others constitute \u201ca more incremental form of democratic erosion,\u201d he writes, one that follows a six-step theory of incremental autocratization based on research on the democratic backsliding seen worldwide in recent decades. The model arose in major part from the work of political scientist Marianne Kneuer of the Dresden University of Technology. She looked at the last quarter-century\u2019s collapse in Venezuela, examining how states turn from democratic to autocratic in stages, as opposed to a sudden coup.The U.S. has already breached the first three steps of Stockemer\u2019s theory. The first step is one of social turmoil; this originated with the Tea Party movement during the Obama administration. Marked by angry politics, backlash against minorities and immigrants, and distrust in institutions, the U.S. has in the last two decades changed from a \u201cfull\u201d to a \u201cflawed\u201d democracy, according to the Economist\u2019s global democracy index.The second step requires a \u201cproject of radical change,\u201d like the populist movement of Venezuela\u2019s Hugo Chavez in the 1990s, or in the U.S. case Trump\u2019s MAGA movement, which defends white, male privileges and holds prime loyalty for many Republicans.The third step is a \u201cdecisive electoral victory,\u201d applicable to Chavez in 1999 or Trump in 2024, the latter a vote that also brought Trump control of a subservient Congress.That leaves us at the edge of the fourth step, the dismantling of checks and balances on executive power.\u201cIf my theory is correct, the U.S. is still in this transition phase between democracy and autocracy,\u201d says Stockemer, by e-mail. \u201cIf they move more in the direction of autocracy, we would see that the administration tries to defy more court orders.\u201d One key part of the fourth step is the declaration of fabricated emergencies, such as the \u201cred scare\u201d of the McCarthy era, to trample checks and balances, such as the judiciary\u2019s control of the legal system. In May, for example, the White House deputy chief of staff suggested Trump could unilaterally suspend habeas corpus, a legal remedy for unlawful detention that dates at least to the Magna Carta and is in the U.S. Constitution, to summarily round up immigrants. He cited an imaginary \u201cinvasion\u201d\u2014even though border crossings are at their lowest point in U.S, history, according to Trump\u2019s U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency\u2014as a reason. The courts would likely resist such a move, as the Supreme Court did under the Bush administration in 2008, and whether the Trump administration abides by judicial decisions will determine whether the fourth step has occurred.Warnings of the fifth step on the road to autocracy, securing long-term power, come in Trump\u2019s musing of seeking an unconstitutional third term as president. The final step, the infringement of basic rights and freedoms, also is flashing warning signs, says Stockemer. These are already evident in executive orders that disengage the U.S. from the United Nations Human Rights Council, remove transgender service members from the military and privilege Christianity. He predicts that attacks on minority voting rights in 2026 and 2028 would be an expected outcome of this step.A simpler \u201ccompetitive authoritarianism\u201d yardstick for measuring democratic collapse comes from political scientists Steven Levitsky, Lucan Way and Daniel Ziblatt earlier this month. \u201cWe propose a simple metric: the cost of opposing the government,\u201d they write in the New York Times. By that measure, they add, the U.S. has already crossed that line, ordering Department of Justice investigations into perceived political enemies, donors to the Democratic Party and news outlets ranging from CBS News to the Des Moines Register. \u201cThe administration\u2019s authoritarian offensive has had a clear impact. It has changed how Americans behave, forcing them to think twice,\u201d they added.The good news is that the slide into autocracy isn\u2019t inevitable for the U.S. The courts may hold, Congress may start listening to protestors as Trump\u2019s approval rating slides, and the Republican coalition, described as \u201cBig Tech on one side, white nationalists on the other,\u201d in the Boston Review, may fracture.Even so, the damage already done is real: \u201cIt is very easy to destroy something such as USAID, but it takes a long time to rebuild it both physically and also in a trust sense, both in America and abroad,\u201d says Stockemer, noting the rapid plummet of Canadian attitudes toward the U.S., from positive to sharply negative. \u201cI can tear down a house in a day, but it will take a year or longer to rebuild it.\u201dThis is an opinion and analysis article, and the views expressed by the author or authors are not necessarily those of Scientific American.",
    "ai_headline": "Science Tells Us the U.S. Is Heading Toward a Dictatorship",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Trump Administration Erodes US Democracy",
    "ai_excerpt": "The article analyzes the potential for the U.S. to descend into autocracy, citing actions by the Trump administration that undermine democratic norms. It references scholarly research on democratic backsliding and identifies steps the U.S. has already taken toward authoritarianism.",
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