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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/17\/us\/politics\/midterms-map-republicans-democrats.html?emc=edit_na_20260917&nl=breaking-news&segment_id=226650",
    "parsed_content": "Primary Season TakeawaysVoting by MailLatest PollsCompetitive RacesSeat PickupsThe political environment has worsened for Republicans as they try to defend control of Congress, though the party has a big cash advantage over Democrats. Credit...Alex Kent\/The New York TimesSkip to contentSkip to site indexSearch & Section NavigationSection NavigationAccountAccountGoHome U.S.SECTIONSU.S.PoliticsNew YorkCaliforniaEducationHealthObituariesScienceClimateWeatherSportsBusinessTechThe UpshotThe MagazineTOP STORIESDonald TrumpSupreme CourtCongressImmigrationAbortionLatest PollsNEWSLETTERSThe MorningMake sense of the day\u2019s news and ideas.The EveningCatch up on big news, and wind down to end your day.See all newslettersPODCASTSThe DailyThe biggest stories of our time, in 20 minutes a day.See all podcastsWorldSECTIONSWorldAfricaAmericasAsiaAustraliaCanadaEuropeMiddle EastScienceClimateWeatherHealthObituariesTOP STORIESMiddle East CrisisRussia-Ukraine WarChina International RelationsThe Global ProfileLeer en Espa\u00f1olNEWSLETTERSThe WorldA guide to understanding the news, made for readers around the globe.Your Places: Global UpdateThe latest news for any part of the world you select.Canada LetterBackstories and analysis from our Canadian correspondents.See all newslettersBusinessSECTIONSBusinessTechEconomyMediaFinance and MarketsDealBookPersonal TechEnergy TransitionYour MoneyTOP STORIESU.S. EconomyStock MarketArtificial IntelligenceNEWSLETTERSDealBookThe most crucial business and policy news you need to know.On TechOur best tech reporting from the week.See all newslettersPODCASTSHard ForkOur tech journalists help you make sense of the rapidly changing tech world.See all podcastsArtsSECTIONSToday's ArtsBook ReviewBest SellersDanceMoviesMusicTelevisionTheaterPop CultureT MagazineVisual ArtsRECOMMENDATIONS100 Best Movies of the 21st CenturyCritic\u2019s PicksWhat to ReadWhat to WatchWhat to Listen To5 Minutes to Make You Love MusicNEWSLETTERSBooksReviews, news and features to help you find your next read.WatchingStreaming TV and movie recommendations.See all newslettersPODCASTSBook ReviewThe podcast that takes you inside the literary world.PopcastPop music news, new songs and albums, and artists of note.See all podcastsLifestyleSECTIONSAll LifestyleWellTravelStyleReal EstateFoodLoveYour MoneyPersonal TechT MagazineCOLUMNS36 HoursAsk WellThe HuntModern LoveWhere to EatVowsSocial Q\u2019sThe EthicistAsk the TherapistNEWSLETTERSThe WeekenderUnwind with stories about culture and the way we live.WellEssential news and guidance to live your healthiest life.See all newslettersPODCASTSModern LoveThe complicated love lives of real people.See all podcastsOpinionSECTIONSOpinionGuest EssaysEditorialsOp-DocsVideosLettersTOPICSPoliticsWorldBusinessTechClimateHealthCultureCOLUMNISTSJamelle BouieMaureen DowdDavid FrenchThomas L. 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Win ProjectionsNEWSLETTERSThe PulseDelivering the top stories in sports, Sunday to Friday.See all newslettersPLAYConnections: Sports Edition Connections: Soccer Edition Connections Coach U.S.InternationalCanadaEspa\u00f1ol\u4e2d\u6587Republicans Reel on the Midterm Map as Deep-Red Areas Come Into PlayThe party is putting up a costly defense of states and districts that President Trump won easily in 2024. And in places like Georgia, strategists wonder if it\u2019s too late.The political environment has worsened for Republicans as they try to defend control of Congress, though the party has a big cash advantage over Democrats. Credit...Alex Kent\/The New York TimesSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTListen \u00b7 10:14 min Share full articleBy Reid J. Epstein and Shane GoldmacherSept. 17, 2026Updated 8:23 a.m. ETIn Georgia, Republican strategists are privately discussing whether the Senate race has drifted beyond the party\u2019s reach.In Kansas, Vice President JD Vance campaigned for a Senate Republican, even though a Democrat there has not been elected to the chamber since 1932.In Nebraska, a new Republican super PAC just sprang up to spend to defend a billionaire incumbent.And across the country, President Trump\u2019s political operation is suddenly investing in what once appeared to be bright-red Senate races and House districts, including several in Texas that his party claimed to have safely gerrymandered only a year ago.Less than seven weeks before the midterm elections, the political environment has deteriorated so badly for Republicans that the battlefield now extends deep into states and districts Mr. Trump carried three times, often by double digits.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT\u201cWe have never felt better,\u201d Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the chamber\u2019s top Democrat, said in an interview, though he cautioned, \u201cIt\u2019s not an easy map.\u201dMr. Trump\u2019s diminished standing, as well as voter anger about high prices brought on by tariffs and the war with Iran, is causing serious problems for Republicans across the map. And economic trends appear to be going the wrong way for the party.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, which will drive up the cost of borrowing at a time many voters are already paying high rates for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debts. Mr. Trump has said not to expect gas price relief before the midterms, with the nation\u2019s strategic petroleum reserves at a 44-year low.ImageThe Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, which will drive up the cost of borrowing.Credit...Jeenah Moon\/Reuters\u201cGas prices are too high right now, diesel prices are too high,\u201d Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged on Tuesday at the Capitol. \u201cThere is a very simple reason for it. It is tied to the Strait of Hormuz.\u201dAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTA national poll released this week by The New York Times and Siena University found that Democrats entered the fall with an advantage of nearly nine percentage points over Republicans on the congressional ballot \u2014 an edge similar to 2018, the last time there was a so-called blue wave.\u201cRepublicans are panicking and are on the brink of losing the House, with the Senate not far behind,\u201d Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, said in an interview.But with so many House and Senate races considered tossups by both parties, the fight for control of Congress remains fluid. Republicans have a big cash advantage that they are using for attack ads against Democrats from South Florida to Alaska. And Democrats are defending Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire in races that appear closer than party leaders had hoped.Republican super PACs, led by Mr. Trump\u2019s network, have booked more than $140 million in advertising since Labor Day.\u201cOur bet is that voters weren\u2019t paying attention until after Labor Day \u2014 and now is when we\u2019re turning everything on,\u201d Representative Richard Hudson of North Carolina, the chairman of House Republicans\u2019 campaign arm, said in an interview. \u201cWe\u2019ve got a money advantage, which I\u2019ve never known in my lifetime.\u201dAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTWill the Lights Go Out in Georgia?The first big state that could fall off the map for Republicans is Georgia.Senator Jon Ossoff, the Democrat up for re-election, began the midterms holding his party\u2019s most endangered seat. But races for Democratic-held seats in Michigan and even New Hampshire now appear more competitive for Republicans, according to strategists in both parties. To win control of the Senate, Democrats must flip at least four seats, including two in states Mr. Trump won by double digits, while holding all of theirs.As of Wednesday, Georgia was the only one of the top nine Senate battleground states where Republicans did not have more money in advertising reserved than Democrats, according to data from the media tracking service AdImpact.Some Republicans have quietly begun to discuss the pros and cons of redirecting resources away from the state, where Representative Mike Collins, the party\u2019s nominee, has trailed Mr. Ossoff in the polls.Representative Mike Collins, the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia, has trailed in polls against the Democratic incumbent, Senator Jon Ossoff. Credit...Shelby Tauber for The New York Times; Alex Kent\/The New York TimesSign up for the On Politics newsletter. It's a pivotal moment for American politics. Join us for 2026 and beyond. Get it sent to your inbox.At a donor meeting last week in Dallas held by Senate Republican strategists, one presentation slide noted four of the party\u2019s \u201cquality\u201d Senate recruits: Representative Ashley Hinson in Iowa, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, former Representative Mike Rogers in Michigan and former Senator John E. Sununu in New Hampshire, according to an attendee who took a picture of the slide.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTMr. Collins was present in the room but conspicuously absent from the slide.\u201cWe have received continued investment from Republicans,\u201d said Meyer Siegfried, a Collins spokesman. \u201cAny claims to the contrary are not based in reality.\u201dThe planned advertising blitz tied to Mr. Trump\u2019s super PAC has so far included only $2.2 million earmarked for Georgia \u2014 a fraction of the combined $29 million for Michigan and New Hampshire.One reason for Republicans to keep spending in Georgia would be to ensure that Democrats, who have less cash, cannot divert money to other states.Signs of Republican AnxietyRepublicans are racing to erect defenses against a potential blue wave.In deep-red Nebraska, which has not been seen as a top Senate battleground this year, a new super PAC, Cornhusker Majority, reserved $3.7 million ads on Tuesday. It immediately began attacking the independent candidate Dan Osborn, who is backed by Democrats.In Kansas, Mr. Vance\u2019s visit came just as Senator Roger Marshall, a Republican, began airing an ad attacking his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton, the senior pastor at the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. Another Republican-aligned super PAC linked to the artificial intelligence industry also began airing pro-Marshall ads.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT\u201cThe fact that they sent the vice president, I thought, was a really great sign,\u201d Mr. Hamilton said in an interview. \u201cI just had to go, \u2018Wow, cool.\u2019 They realize this thing is in play.\u201dImageVice President JD Vance rallied Republicans this week in Kansas, which has never been seen as a top battleground for the Senate.Credit...Pool photo by Mark SchiefelbeinNotably, Mr. Trump\u2019s operation has been using newly created super PACs instead of his main one, MAGA Inc., to book ads in states other than Texas. One result of that move: The damaged MAGA brand will not appear in the disclaimers of the ads.The rising price of diesel is hitting farm states especially hard, and Republicans like Mr. Marshall are rushing to show that they are trying to do something about it. This week, he wrote a public letter to the agriculture secretary urging the Trump administration to provide relief for farmers.Mr. Hudson, the House Republican campaign chief, said in the interview that the war with Iran was \u201cnot helpful,\u201d but that the party\u2019s main problem was that voters who backed Mr. Trump were not aware of what the Republican-led Congress had accomplished.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT\u201cA lot of voters don\u2019t know the policies we passed,\u201d he said.There are signs some Republicans are looking to distance themselves from Mr. Trump. On Tuesday, Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, both Iowa Republicans, voted with Democrats to direct the president to end the war with Iran. Their votes came as Ms. Hinson boasted in a new television ad about how she had \u201cworked with Democrats\u201d in Congress.Mr. Vance is scheduled to speak at a rally on Friday for Iowa Republicans \u2014 but Ms. Hinson said she would not attend.Democrats Go on Offense in Red AreasDemocrats are bullish about competing in House districts and red states the party has not come close to winning for years.The party\u2019s campaign arm claims to be contesting 58 Republican-held seats, including several Mr. Trump won by as much as 20 points two years ago.The landscape Republicans are defending reaches deep into territory Mr. Trump won easily. A super PAC run by the Trump operation has bought $637,000 worth of advertising in Kentucky\u2019s Sixth District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTZach Dembo, the Democratic candidate there, said Mr. Trump\u2019s tariff policies had hurt farmers and the bourbon industry.Republicans, he argued, \u201cclearly recognize that we\u2019re connecting and the ground is shifting.\u201dThe district backed Mr. Trump overwhelmingly but also voted for Gov. Andy Beshear, a two-term Democrat whose own super PAC is airing ads there.Seats like the one Mr. Dembo is contesting are unlikely to determine the majority. But if some of them flip, they could deliver Democrats a larger governing majority in 2027 and give the party a better chance of maintaining control after the next election in 2028.ImageGov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky has been helping Zach Dembo, a Democratic House candidate in the state\u2019s Sixth District, which President Trump carried by 15 percentage points in 2024.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesIn another deep-red seat, Eileen Laubacher, a Navy veteran, is mounting a competitive challenge to Representative Lauren Boebert in a largely rural Colorado district that Mr. Trump had won by 18 points.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTMs. Laubacher said she had heard from many people who were angry about the high costs of fuel and supplies.\u201cTheir lives are becoming more difficult and more expensive, and that is not what they were hoping for and not what they voted for,\u201d she said.J.B. Poersch, the president of the main super PAC for Democratic Senate candidates, Senate Majority PAC, said his party was on the verge of winning as long as it did not get swamped by Republican ads.\u201cThis is a map that\u2019s springing in opportunity,\u201d he said before adding a plea and a warning: \u201cMore financial resources are necessary.\u201dBayliss Wagner and Theodore Schleifer contributed reporting.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
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    "ai_headline": "The political environment has worsened for Republicans as they try to defend control of Congress, though the party has a big cash advantage over Democrats.",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Republicans Face Worsening Political Environment for Congress Control",
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