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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/10\/01\/opinion\/gas-prices-oil-crash.html?emc=edit_na_20261001&nl=breaking-news&segment_id=227359",
    "parsed_content": "AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTOpinionSupported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTGuest EssayIf You Think Rising Oil Prices Are Bad, Just Wait for the Inevitable CrashOct. 1, 2026Credit...Brian BlomerthListen \u00b7 7:42 min Share full articleBy Philip Delves BroughtonMr. Broughton is the author of \u201cEmbargo: The 1973 Oil Crisis That Changed the World (And What We Can Learn From It Now),\u201d to be published in November.See more of our coverage in your search results.Encuentra m\u00e1s de nuestra cobertura en los resultados de b\u00fasqueda. Add The New York Times on GoogleAgrega The New York Times en Google When the United States and Israel attacked Iran in February, a temporary surge in oil prices was a given. Seven months on, with the international price for a barrel of crude around $100 and tankers still cowering in the Strait of Hormuz, drivers seem resigned to paying $5 for a gallon of gas for the foreseeable future.They needn\u2019t be: Oil\u2019s big bust is coming. The stage is set for a price crash, and not the kind that would benefit President Trump before the midterm elections.Oil busts happen first in drips, then in blowouts. In March, at the oil industry\u2019s annual jamboree in Houston, executives celebrated how the Trump administration had simplified their lives. Regulatory approvals that used to take years were being waved through in days. Exploration and production were booming, and the surge in prices from the war was already plumping profits. Oil traders were feasting on the volatility.Older heads, however, recalled a darker time. In early 1986, oil prices fell from roughly $30 a barrel to $10 after Saudi Arabia decided to flood the market to punish OPEC members who were flouting production limits. The combination of a U.S. slump and the fall in global oil prices took Houston into its own version of the Great Depression.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTPawnshops, bursting with furs and Rolexes, had to turn away consigners. In the evening, the sunlight shone through empty skyscrapers, unfiltered by people or furniture. The former Texas governor John Connally filed for bankruptcy and sold his possessions at auction. The psychological effects were deep and lasting.Something similar will happen if the Iran war ends and shipping resumes freely through the strait. Oil prices will retreat, initially to where they were in January, around $60 to $70 per barrel.Sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter Get expert analysis of the news and a guide to the big ideas shaping the world every weekday morning. Get it sent to your inbox.But a more dramatic fall now looks likely, beyond the careful forecasts of supply and demand.During the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis, prices fell from around $140 a barrel to $40, and during Covid they plummeted from $60 to $20. A similar drop today could take prices to $30 and below. At that price, the Saudis could make money but not U.S. oil producers.The commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, said recently that the administration wants oil prices to collapse. The plan is to open the spigots of global oil, starting in Venezuela, with the goal of $2-per-gallon gasoline, forever \u2014 which translates to crude oil pricing at $30 to $40 a barrel.While an appealing campaign pledge, a price that low would devastate the U.S. oil industry. The break-even price for American oil producers drilling new wells is north of $60 a barrel; for shale drillers, even higher. In Mr. Lutnick\u2019s world, the cheering oil barons of Houston, and their employees and dependents, would soon face economic Armageddon.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTIn a balanced state, the world produces and consumes around 105 million barrels of liquid fuels daily, including crude oil. This year, both supply and demand are down. The International Energy Agency\u2019s latest annual estimate is that global demand for oil will fall by 2.5 million barrels per day, while supply will fall by 5.7 million barrels per day. Through the summer, the world drew on its inventories to fill the gap between supply and demand. Those stores, such as the United States\u2019 Strategic Petroleum Reserve, are now running dry.Changes of a few percentage points in supply and demand may not seem like much. But it is in the margins where you find the seeds of collapse.While the Persian Gulf has been blocked, countries in other parts of the world have been investing to increase production. Guyana\u2019s vast fields are now producing at scale, after years of investment led by Exxon Mobil. Argentina\u2019s president, Javier Milei, is pushing to expand production in Patagonia. Venezuela\u2019s antiquated oil infrastructure is expected to be overhauled with a rush of funding.An end to the war in Ukraine could bring much of Russia\u2019s sanctioned oil out of the shadow fleets and back onto the open market, once it repairs its shattered infrastructure. The question then will be whether there will be buyers for all this supply.In the meantime, champions of renewable energy are closer than ever to the tipping-point moment when alternative energy becomes inexpensive, reliable and widely available. This year, renewables, mostly wind and solar, are providing just over half the electricity consumed in California and Western Europe.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe biggest obstacles to greater use are storage and transmission to ensure consistent delivery. Oil\u2019s instability may be the final push investors need to accelerate the transition. Surging electricity demand from Big Tech and A.I. giants is also supercharging investments into alternatives, including small, modular nuclear reactors.The effects of high oil prices are not evenly distributed. Asian countries, which rely heavily on imports of Gulf oil, have suffered more in recent months than Western countries, which have regional supplies and more diversified energy systems. In the 1970s, Japan adjusted to the near quadrupling of oil prices by developing nuclear power and investing in lighter, less energy-intensive manufacturing. The hardest-hit victims of today\u2019s price rises will be making similar calculations.Mr. Trump\u2019s quixotic foreign policy has also left many countries wondering if depending on oil, which relies so much on American action and inaction around the world, is worth the hassle. America\u2019s exasperated Middle Eastern allies will soon be walking into the arms of China, a huge oil buyer. The latest attack on Saudi Arabia\u2019s crucial east-west oil pipeline will likely affect supply for months, increasing the sense that this supposedly limited war has spun out of control.There is also the prospect of recession, another demand killer. The simplest reading of the recent tremors in the bond markets is that winter is coming. The United States and much of Europe are too deeply in debt. The A.I. bubble is a rogue agent or two away from deflating. Borrowing costs are rising, and a worldwide recession would dent demand for oil at a moment of rising supply.Watch out: When oil prices start to fall, producers race to the bottom. They increase production, which briefly sustains revenues until the additional supply forces prices down further. One by one, higher-cost producers are forced out, unable to sustain the losses. The 1986 price collapse was devastating for the Soviet Union. A similar collapse today could crush Vladimir Putin\u2019s Russia.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTDespite a production-cost advantage, Saudi Arabia cannot tolerate low crude prices the way it used to. That nation\u2019s population has nearly tripled since 1986, and its development planners are thirsty for capital. Sudden and searing economic pain in the Middle East may destabilize political decision making.Throughout the petroverse, then, conditions are now pointing toward another oil collapse. It is just a question of when. That may be welcome news to drivers filling their gas tanks. But like the recent price escalation, it is also rife with unintended and disastrous consequences for the oil industry, and the economies and countries that depend on it.Philip Delves Broughton is also the author of \u201cEmbargo: The 1973 Oil Crisis That Changed the World (And What We Can Learn From It Now)\u201d and \u201cAhead of the Curve: Two Years at Harvard Business School.\u201dThe Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We\u2019d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here\u2019s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp and Threads.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
    "published_at": "2026-10-01T09:01:54+00:00",
    "author_name": "Philip Delves Broughton",
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    "ai_headline": "If You Think Rising Oil Prices Are Bad, Just Wait for the Inevitable Crash",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Philip Delves Broughton Predicts Oil Price Crash After Iran War",
    "ai_excerpt": "An opinion piece argues that despite current high oil prices due to the US-Israel attack on Iran, a significant oil price crash is imminent. Factors like increased global production, the rise of renewables, and potential recession are setting the stage for a dramatic fall, which could devastate the US oil industry and destabilize oil-dependent economies.",
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