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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/22\/upshot\/hispanic-voters-midterm-elections.html?emc=edit_na_20260923&nl=breaking-news&segment_id=226921",
    "parsed_content": "The Race for CongressPrimary Season TakeawaysVoting by MailLatest PollsCompetitive RacesSeat PickupsAdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTSee more of our coverage in your search results.Encuentra m\u00e1s de nuestra cobertura en los resultados de b\u00fasqueda. Add The New York Times on GoogleAgrega The New York Times en Google You\u2019re reading The Tilt newsletter. Nate Cohn, The Times\u2019s chief political analyst, makes sense of the latest political data. Get it sent to your inbox.President Trump\u2019s enormous gains among Hispanic voters in the last election propelled him to victory in the national popular vote and prompted talk of a political realignment. Two years later, that talk is over.In an average of high-quality national polls over the last month, Democrats led Republicans among Hispanic likely voters by 35 percentage points, 64-29, on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support for Congress.That would mark an extraordinary reversal since 2024, when the same pollsters found Kamala Harris leading Mr. Trump by an average of only seven points among Hispanic voters in their final surveys.A shift toward Democrats on anything like this scale could remake the electoral map \u2014 threatening longtime Republican incumbents, new Republican gerrymanders and the party\u2019s crown jewel, Texas \u2014 and represent a final unraveling of his winning 2024 coalition.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTIf one applied the demographic trends from recent Times\/Siena national polls to districts across the country, Democratic gains among Hispanic voters would imperil Republicans in more than a dozen districts that Mr. Trump won by double digits but where Republicans depend on support from Hispanic voters. Texas and Florida would become ground zero for a possible Democratic tsunami, with the party\u2019s chance at a large congressional majority potentially hinging on whether it could break through Republican gerrymanders in those states.\n \n \n \n Estimating shifts where the G.O.P. relies on Hispanic support Democrats could contend for many House districts with significant Hispanic populations that President Trump won by double digits. These estimates are based on demographic shifts from the latest Times\/Siena national poll, not specific candidate polling. D+20D+10EVENR+10R+20 Texas 28th District +31 pts. Dem. Estimated 2026 vote 2024 vote34th District +24 15th District +25 35th District +16 23rd District +18 9th District +16 Florida D+20D+10EVENR+10R+20 26th District +25 27th District +21 22nd District +13 14th District +11 28th District +25 7th District +11 12th District +12 Source: 2024 presidential election results; 2026 estimates based on a New York Times\/Siena national poll conducted Sept. 8 to 13. \n \n It\u2019s important to caution that it\u2019s challenging to precisely measure shifts among smaller groups like Hispanic voters. High-quality national polls have largely anticipated major swings among Hispanic voters in recent cycles, but they have not been perfect. With the polls showing Democrats gaining so much, even a modestly larger or smaller shift could be the difference between victory and defeat for Republicans in heavily Hispanic districts.Nonetheless, the national, state and district polls leave no doubt that many Republicans in these districts are in jeopardy. The reason is simple: Mr. Trump.His approval rating among Hispanic voters has fallen to the 20s, including just 26 percent in the most recent New York Times\/Siena poll. Just two years after concerns about rising prices propelled him to victory, only 8 percent of Hispanic voters approved of his handling of the cost of living in the last Times\/Siena poll, while 18 percent approved on the economy. His approval rating on immigration, at 26 percent, was not much better.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe polls have shown signs of growing Democratic strength among Hispanic voters all cycle, but it\u2019s only over the last few weeks that the state and district-level polling has begun to confirm and reveal the extent of Democratic gains.James Talarico has led every recent survey of the Texas Senate race, with polls showing him ahead among Hispanic voters by at least 20 points. Although his lead is often mostly dismissed as a reflection of the profound flaws of his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, the polls also show the Democrat Gina Hinojosa to be surprisingly competitive in the race for governor against the incumbent, Greg Abbott, who leads by an average of three points in recent polls.Perhaps even more striking than a poll result was a recent advertisement from Mar\u00eda Elvira Salazar, who represents Florida\u2019s 27th District, a heavily Cuban area in Miami-Dade County that voted for Mr. Trump by 15 points. She filmed a television ad in which she spoke directly to the camera \u2014 and to Mr. Trump \u2014 about how \u201cthe same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.\u201dEarly in the cycle, few analysts expected a competitive race for Texas governor or for a South Florida House seat. In both states, Republicans felt so secure in their success among Hispanic voters that they redrew their state\u2019s congressional maps to try to gain as many as nine combined Republican seats. These aggressive gerrymanders were drawn in part on the assumption that the Republicans would retain at least some of Mr. Trump\u2019s gains among Hispanic voters.With Democrats surging back among Hispanic voters, many of the districts that Republicans hoped to flip might remain in the Democratic camp. At the same time, Republican-held seats that the party thought it might be able to take for granted could be in jeopardy.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTIn Texas, Democrats would be expected to lead on the generic congressional ballot in five Texas congressional districts where Mr. Trump won by at least 10 points in 2024 and to stay close in a sixth, based on the trends in Times\/Siena national polling. In a sign that the G.O.P. itself doesn\u2019t consider the races safe, Republican groups are spending in all six of these seats \u2014 which include four of the five districts Republicans thought they could flip with their new gerrymander.Republicans in Florida might also be jeopardized by a Democratic surge among Hispanic voters, though it is worth cautioning that Democrats in Florida have underperformed national trends for a decade. Even so, gains among Hispanic voters ought to be sufficient for Democrats to be competitive in the state\u2019s heavily Hispanic Republican-held districts in South Florida, including Ms. Salazar\u2019s district. It could also help Democrats retain the districts with more modest but still substantial Hispanic populations that Republicans targeted in redistricting.One important complication is financial: Florida and Texas are two of the nation\u2019s most expensive states for ad campaigns. Republicans have a substantial financial advantage, and Florida and Texas might be exactly where it pays off, by allowing the party to defend congressional districts in expensive media markets that will be difficult for Democrats to match.Either way, Democratic gains among Hispanic voters put Texas and Florida center stage. The Democratic Party\u2019s chances of having a truly exceptional midterm election \u2014 one that yields a large congressional majority and control of the Senate \u2014 could depend on whether Democratic gains among Hispanic voters translate into breakthroughs in Texas and Florida.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTIf Democrats fall short, the surge of support among Hispanic voters will boost the party\u2019s popular vote while doing relatively little to give Democrats the seats needed to control Congress. But if the breakthrough happens, it could essentially cancel out the G.O.P.\u2019s gerrymanders in both states and give Democrats a long-awaited victory in Texas.Rachel Buigas-Lopez contributed graphics.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
    "published_at": "2026-09-22T18:27:20+00:00",
    "author_name": "Nate Cohn",
    "site_name": "The New York Times",
    "section": "Upshot",
    "publisher": "The New York Times Company",
    "ai_headline": "Hispanic Voters Shift Back to Democrats, Threatening G.O.P. in Key States",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Democrats Regain Hispanic Voter Support, Threatening GOP in Texas and Florida",
    "ai_excerpt": "Democrats are seeing a significant reversal of Hispanic voter support, leading Republicans by 35 points on the generic congressional ballot. This shift could imperil Republican incumbents and gerrymanders in states like Texas and Florida, potentially remaking the electoral map.",
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        "Midterm Elections",
        "Democratic Party",
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        "Florida Politics"
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