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    "original_url": "https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/09\/21\/us\/politics\/whos-winning-the-race-for-congress.html?emc=edit_nn_20260921&nl=the-morning&segment_id=226815",
    "parsed_content": "Who\u2019s winning the race for Congress? The election is in 43 days. \n \n Supported bySKIP ADVERTISEMENTWho\u2019s Winning the Race for Congress?We\u2019re 43 days away from the midterms. Here\u2019s the state of play.Listen \u00b7 7:46 min Share full articleBy Shane GoldmacherShane Goldmacher is a national political correspondent covering the 2026 midterm elections.Sept. 21, 2026Updated 6:17 a.m. ETThe bad news for Republicans is that the battleground map keeps shifting to redder and redder territory.Places like Kansas \u2014 where Democrats have not won a Senate seat in nearly a century \u2014 now appear to feature actual, well, races. President Trump\u2019s operation is spending millions of dollars in congressional districts he won by double digits.The good news for Republicans is that almost none of these campaigns are lost causes \u2014 yet. District by district, state by state, the races that will decide the majorities remain close. Democrats are still defending some competitive seats that they might have hoped to lock up by now. For instance, they recently plunged in $10 million more to defend a Michigan Senate seat they already hold.With a little more than six weeks until Election Day, that is the tension at the heart of the midterm map. The Democrats have the momentum. Republicans have the map and the money.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe Battle for the Senate\n \n \n \n \nMaineMich.AlaskaOhioN.H.Ga.N.C.IowaTexasNeb.Minn.KansasMaineMichigan AlaskaTexasIowaMinnesotaNebraskaKansasOhioNew HampshireGeorgiaNorth\nCarolina 3 favor D Dem. 7 Tossups 2 favor R Rep. 9 other races and 34 not up for re-election 50 seats 14 other races and 31 not up for re-election Who\u2019s Winning the Race for Congress? - The New York Times\n \n Data is as of Sept. 15, 2026. Senate races rated by Cook Political Report as leaning or likely are grouped together as favoring the party.Source: The Cook Political Report Senate race ratingsThe New York TimesIt\u2019s a critical couple of weeks for Representative Mike Collins, the Republican nominee in Georgia, and Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee in North Carolina.Both have consistently trailed in polls, and Republican strategists are actively discussing whether to cut bait, especially on Collins, as The Times reported last week.At a donor meeting earlier this month in Dallas, Collins was notably missing from a slide presentation of the party\u2019s top\u201cquality\u201d recruits this cycle \u2014 though he was in the room as the presentation was made.Republicans haven\u2019t given up on Georgia or North Carolina. President Trump campaigned for Whatley last week in North Carolina. Vice President JD Vance will be there on Monday. And Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Republican majority leader, is headed to Atlanta on Thursday to headline a fund-raiser for Collins.But as Thune said last week, Republicans \u201cobviously make decisions when it comes to resources\u201d on a stretched map.Translation: Improve soon in the polls \u2014 or else.Inside the Air WarsThe polls are looking good for Democrats. The money is not \u2014 at least in terms of the ad spending in the top Senate races.Democrats are set to be outspent on television and radio in every major contest outside of Georgia between Labor Day and Election Day.Here are the gaps for the coming week, according to data from AdImpact, the ad-tracking service.In Texas, Republicans will have a $25.9 million to $1.1 million edge in the coming week.In Michigan, it\u2019s nearly $9.1 million to $3.2 million.And in Ohio, it\u2019s $12.6 million to $6.8 million.Sign up for the On Politics newsletter. It's a pivotal moment for American politics. Join us for 2026 and beyond. Get it sent to your inbox.One Key MetricThe highest-ever price of a gallon of diesel: $6.50.The price of diesel on Sunday, according to AAA: $6.50.The Race for the House\n \n \n \n \nWash.Calif.Nev.Ariz.N.M.TexasNeb.IowaWis.Mich.N.Y.Pa.OhioN.C.Va.N.J.Fla.Colo.WashingtonCaliforniaNevadaArizonaNew MexicoTexasNebraskaIowaWisconsinMichiganNew YorkPennsylvaniaOhioNorth\nCarolinaVirginiaNew\nJerseyFloridaColorado 9 lean D Dem. 21 Tossups 7 lean R Rep. 197 solidly or likely Dem. 218 districtsfor control 201 solidly or likely Rep. \n \n Data is as of Sept. 15, 2026.Source: The Cook Political Report House race ratingsThe New York TimesRepublicans are seeing the same polls that the public is. The Times measured a nearly 9-percentage-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot last week \u2014 akin to the margin in the 2018 Democratic wave.But Republicans are openly hoping those numbers are understating G.O.P. support.\u201cNone of us should put any stock in polls anymore because they are wildly inaccurate; we all know that,\u201d Speaker Mike Johnson said last week at the Capitol. \u201cWe know this is going to be a tight race. It is going to be decided by about 20 jump-ball swing districts around the country.\u201dHis math is not wrong. The Cook Political Report currently rates 206 seats as leaning Democratic and 208 as leaning Republican. Democrats will need to win a majority of the 21 tossup seats to win the majority (16 of the 21 are currently held by the G.O.P.).AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe MoneyDemocrats appear to believe one swing district is more safely in their hands.On Friday, the leading House Democratic super PAC, House Majority PAC, began to pull all its reservations for the coming week in Michigan\u2019s 8th district, where Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet, a Democrat, is seeking re-election in a seat that Trump carried in 2024. The total being canceled is around $1 million and can be seen as a sign of bullishness for Democrats. Republicans still have television time booked in the seat.The Democratic House Majority PAC is planning to book its first television ads in two Republican-held seats in the New York media market on Monday, according to CJ Warnke, the group\u2019s spokesman. The buy is $2.4 million in cable time targeting Representative Mike Lawler of New York and Representative Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey.Top TalkerThe ad seen \u2019round the political world last week was from Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican of Florida, whose straight-to-camera rebuke of Trump\u2019s hard-line immigration policies included the line, \u201cThe same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.\u201dCandidates in swing seats often seek distance from an unpopular president. But Trump carried Salazar\u2019s district with 57 percent of the vote. Her decision to so aggressively break with him suggests his numbers have cratered among South Florida\u2019s Hispanic population.Salazar said on CBS on Sunday that she spoke with Trump since the ad was released and that he was \u201cvery courteous, very receptive.\u201d Of course, Salazar has taken the familiar tack of not blaming Trump for his own policies but rather unnamed aides. \u201cI think that some of his advisers are compromising his legacy,\u201d she said on Sunday.One Poll NumberIn last week\u2019s Times\/Siena poll, Trump\u2019s approval rating among Hispanic voters was at only 26 percent, with 69 percent disapproving.On the IssuesOther Republicans sought distance from the president in different ways. In a floor vote, two Republicans, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Representative Zach Nunn, both of Iowa and running in top battleground, voted for the first time for President Trump to end the war in Iran or seek authorization to continue it.They had previously opposed restrictions.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENTOn the GroundAnother Iowa Republican, Representative Ashley Hinson, did not attend Vice President JD Vance\u2019s event in the state on Friday.\u201cI know she couldn\u2019t be here today,\u201d Vance told the crowd, \u201cbut are we going to elect Ashley Hinson?\u201dQuote of the WeekSenator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, last week previewed his weekend travel to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa to reporters on the Capitol steps in a way that colorfully captured the state of play.\u201cIf you told me six months ago, I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn\u2019t have believed you,\u201d Mr. Kennedy said. \u201cThose ought to be fat guy layups for us. Now we\u2019re going to win there. But the races are close.\u201dWorth a Thousand WordsImageA journalist from CNN, Betsy Klein, reporting from outside the White House. She was among the journalists from several news outlets who were barred from entering the White House on Saturday. Credit...Doug Mills\/The New York TimesProduced by Leo Dominguez, Lazaro Gamio, Rumsey Taylor and Ashley Wu.AdvertisementSKIP ADVERTISEMENT",
    "published_at": "2026-09-21T09:04:25+00:00",
    "author_name": "Shane Goldmacher",
    "site_name": "The New York Times",
    "section": "Politics",
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    "ai_headline": "Who\u2019s winning the race for Congress? The election is in 43 days.",
    "ai_simplified_title": "Democrats Gain Momentum in Congress Race 43 Days Before Midterms",
    "ai_excerpt": "With 43 days until the midterms, Democrats show momentum while Republicans hold the map and money. Key Senate and House races remain tight, with ad spending favoring Republicans in many contests.",
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