Claims

View and explore all extracted claims from processed sources.

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Extracted Claims (18452)

Most forecasters aren’t worried about that, because they do more than predict numbers. 0.800

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: Most forecasters aren’t worried because they do more than predict numbers

1 sources

2 months ago
Surprises happen, and people want to know, ‘What does this mean, what’s going to happen, what’s driving it?’ 0.900

👤 Michael Pugliese 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: Surprises happen people want to know what does this mean what’s going to happen what’s driving it

1 sources

2 months ago
Every estimate comes with a detailed analysis of the factors underneath the headline number, which is what investors and companies need to figure out how to spend money. 0.900

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: Every estimate comes with detailed analysis of factors which investors and companies need to figure out how to spend money

1 sources

2 months ago
Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan who studied and wrote about the earlier iterations of prediction markets, has told Fed officials that they should take those market... 0.900

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: Justin Wolfers has told Fed officials that they should take those markets into consideration

1 sources

2 months ago
They have been hesitant, he said. 0.900

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: They have been hesitant

1 sources

2 months ago
I think that’s a lot of nuanced, important information that you’d want to have when you are making decisions, as an operator in these markets. 0.900

👤 Michael Pugliese 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: That’s a lot of nuanced important information that you’d want to have when you are making decisions as an operator in these markets

1 sources

2 months ago
They would be making the jobs of their contributors harder, because now they have individual sources of information to draw from. 0.900

👤 Ms. Sinclair 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: They would be making jobs of their contributors harder because they have individual sources of information to draw from

1 sources

2 months ago
If the crowd were to supplant professional forecasters, individual bettors would lose out. 0.900

👤 Ms. Sinclair 📋 News Article 🏷️ Finance , Prediction Markets

Simplified: If crowd were to supplant professional forecasters individual bettors would lose out

1 sources

2 months ago
On the quantitative questions that are his stock in trade, like forecasting changes to the Consumer Price Index and gross domestic product, Mr. Feroli suspects something else is going on: The betting... 0.850

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Forecasting

Simplified: Betting markets are just following the experts on quantitative questions

1 sources

2 months ago
Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University who studies forecasting, agrees that is likely. 0.900

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Forecasting

Simplified: Tara Sinclair an economist at George Washington University agrees that is likely

1 sources

2 months ago
Most of them aren’t good at everything. 0.850

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Trading

Simplified: Most traders are not good at everything

1 sources

2 months ago
“Whenever you talk to D.C. people, they’ll say, ‘Well, I think they’ll get the budget done.’ So, what’s the probability?” Mr. Feroli said. 0.800

👤 Mr. Feroli 📋 News Article 🏷️ Politics , Budget

Simplified: D.C. people say they will get the budget done

1 sources

2 months ago
Kalshi won a lawsuit allowing it to operate legally in 2024, and Polymarket, which is only sporadically accessible in the United States as lawsuits have blocked trading in many states. 1.000

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Regulation , Lawsuit

Simplified: Kalshi won a lawsuit allowing it to operate legally in 2024

1 sources

2 months ago
On any given day, more than $60 million is at stake on the platforms on political and economic questions — far more than the earlier platforms reached. 0.950

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Gambling

Simplified: More than $60 million is at stake on platforms on political and economic questions on any given day

1 sources

2 months ago
Sites like Intrade focused mostly on elections and the likelihood of other world events, and were generally found to be fairly accurate. 0.900

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Elections , World Events

Simplified: Intrade focused on elections and world events and were fairly accurate

1 sources

2 months ago
In the 2010s, U.S. regulators cracked down, ruling that they were operating as illegal gambling platforms. 1.000

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Regulation , Gambling

Simplified: US regulators cracked down ruling that they were operating as illegal gambling platforms in 2010s

1 sources

2 months ago
Analysts may also avoid publishing earnings forecasts that are out of the norm, which can lead to more embarrassment than sticking with the crowd. 0.850

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Earnings Forecasts

Simplified: Analysts may avoid publishing earnings forecasts that are out of the norm

1 sources

2 months ago
“Getting information from a large pool of people can be a remarkably good form of forecasting,” said Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University who co-wrote the paper. 0.900

👤 Jonathan Wright 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Forecasting

Simplified: Getting information from a large pool of people can be a good form of forecasting Jonathan Wright said

1 sources

2 months ago
Another working paper, by economists at the London Business School and Yale University, found that Polymarket bettors as a whole forecast corporate earnings more accurately than the analysts who are p... 0.950

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Corporate Earnings , Forecasting

Simplified: Polymarket bettors forecast corporate earnings more accurately than analysts

1 sources

2 months ago
Professional analysts may have conflicts of interest, such as their firm’s trading commissions, which might rise in response to rosier forecasts. 0.850

👤 The author 📋 News Article 🏷️ Economics , Conflicts of Interest

Simplified: Professional analysts may have conflicts of interest such as their firm's trading commissions

1 sources

2 months ago