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Claim Text: “Whenever you talk to D.C. people, they’ll say, ‘Well, I think they’ll get the budget done.’ So, what’s the probability?” Mr. Feroli said.
Simplified Text: D.C. people say they will get the budget done
Confidence Score: 0.800
Claim Maker: Mr. Feroli
Context Type: News Article
Context Details: { "person": "Mr. Feroli" }
Subject Tags: Politics Budget
UUID: a1166099-b037-4b3d-af36-e3c26240f1c1
Vector Index: ✗ No vector
Created: February 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM (6 months ago)
Last Updated: February 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM (6 months ago)

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Screenshot of https://nytimes.com/2026/02/11/business/economy/forecasts-prediction-markets-economy.html

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38 claims 🔥

1 week ago

https://nytimes.com/2026/02/11/business/economy/forecasts-prediction-markets-economy.html

Prediction markets, where individuals bet on economic outcomes, are proving surprisingly accurate, sometimes outperforming professional forecasters. These markets offer insights into jobs reports, inflation, and interest rate decisions, prompting economists to take notice.

Prediction Markets Economics Forecasting Financial Markets Economic Indicators Inflation Federal Reserve Jobs Report

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On the quantitative questions that are his stock in trade, like forecasting changes to the Consumer Price Index and gross domestic product, Mr. Feroli suspects something else is going on: The betting... 0.850

Simplified: Betting markets are just following the experts on quantitative questions

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Plus, leaders of both parties said, negotiations were ongoing between Democrats and the White House, and members of the House and Senate could be quickly summoned back if a breakthrough occurred and a... 1.000

Simplified: Leaders of both parties said negotiations were ongoing between Democrats and White House members of House and Senate could be quickly summoned back if...

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The White House must send Congress a budget by the first Monday in February by law. 0.950

Simplified: The White House must send Congress a budget by the first Monday in February by law

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It was a jarring change from the past, when lawmakers were reluctant to seem like they were giving up for even a moment before time ran out for a deal. 1.000

Simplified: It was jarring change from past when lawmakers were reluctant to seem like they were giving up before time ran out for deal

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Lawmakers rejected some of the president’s most aggressive attempts to whittle down the government in a series of deals over the past three months. 0.950

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